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ZIONS BANCORPORATION, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION /UT/ (ZION)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 delivered solid core trends but modest headline misses vs consensus: diluted EPS $1.13 vs ~$1.18 consensus and revenue ~$0.777B vs ~$0.795B reported GAAP revenue; NIM expanded 5 bps q/q and 16 bps y/y to 3.10% as deposit costs declined 17 bps q/q (cost of deposits 1.76%) . EPS consensus and revenue consensus values marked with an asterisk are from S&P Global; see disclaimer below.*
  • Adjusted PPNR rose 10% y/y to $267M; efficiency ratio of 66.6% reflected seasonal compensation and higher regulatory assessments; customer-related fees normalized from Q4’s record but remained up y/y .
  • Credit remained benign: NCOs 11 bps annualized; NPAs 0.51% of loans + OREO; ACL 1.24%; CRE nonaccruals stayed low; management flagged greater macro uncertainty tied to tariffs/trade policy .
  • Outlook: Zions guided 1Q26 vs 1Q25 to slightly/moderately higher NII, customer fees, and adjusted OpEx with positive operating leverage; loans stable-to-slightly increasing; management reaffirmed positive op leverage (1–2%) on a rolling-year basis in Q&A .
  • Capital/distribution: CET1 10.8%; dividend maintained at $0.43 (declared May 2); $41M of Q1 buybacks (0.8M shares) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Deposit costs fell and NIM expanded for a fifth straight quarter (NIM 3.10%, +5 bps q/q, +16 bps y/y) as time deposits repriced down; total deposit spot rate ended March at 1.70% (interest-bearing 2.54%) .
  • Credit metrics remained strong: NCOs 0.11% annualized, NPAs 0.51%, CRE nonaccruals 0.43%; ACL steady at 1.24% .
  • Strategic execution: closed Coachella Valley branch acquisition (~$630M deposits, ~$420M loans) and advanced loan-origination tech via nCino to speed decisioning and improve client experience .
    • Quote: “This reflects a 16 basis point increase in the net interest margin and a 10% increase in adjusted pre-provision net revenue” — Harris H. Simmons, CEO .
    • Quote: “We are determined to build an AI-enabled culture” and provided an outlook amid tariff uncertainty .

What Went Wrong

  • Headline miss vs S&P Global consensus: EPS $1.13 vs ~$1.18; revenue ~$0.777B vs ~$0.795B GAAP; EPS impacted by a $0.11/share DTA revaluation charge from Utah tax law changes (expected to accrete back) . EPS and revenue consensus values marked with an asterisk are from S&P Global; see disclaimer below.*
  • Efficiency ratio worsened q/q (66.6% vs 62.0%) on seasonal comp, higher technology spend, and increased deposit insurance; customer-related fees fell 10% q/q from a record Q4, led by capital markets normalization .
  • Classified loans elevated to 4.82% of loans (vs 1.66% a year ago), largely in CRE (industrial/office) and C&I; management emphasized low LTVs, strong sponsorship and low nonaccruals, but investors will monitor migration closely .

Financial Results

Headline Metrics (Company-reported)

MetricQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Diluted EPS ($)$0.96 $1.34 $1.13
Net Interest Income ($M)$586 $627 $624
Noninterest Income ($M)$156 $193 $171
Total Revenue (GAAP NII + Noninterest) ($M)$742 $820 $795
Net Interest Margin (%)2.94% 3.05% 3.10%
Adjusted PPNR ($M)$242 $312 $267
Efficiency Ratio (Adj) (%)67.9% 62.0% 66.6%
Provision for Credit Losses ($M)$13 $41 $18
Net Charge-offs (annualized, %)0.04% 0.24% 0.11%
NPAs / Loans + OREO (%)0.44% 0.50% 0.51%
CET1 Ratio (%)10.4% 10.9% 10.8%

Results vs S&P Global Consensus (Q1 2025)

MetricActualConsensusΔ
Diluted EPS ($)$1.13$1.18*-$0.05
Revenue ($M)$777$794.8*-$17.8

Values with an asterisk were retrieved from S&P Global. The consensus and “actual” shown in this table reflect S&P Global’s convention and may differ from company GAAP totals; please see company-reported revenue in the table above for GAAP NII + noninterest income .

Balance Sheet & Funding

MetricQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Loans & Leases (period-end, $B)$58.11 $58.19 $59.24
Deposits (period-end, $B)$74.24 $76.22 $75.69
Noninterest-bearing Demand ($B)$25.14 $24.70 $24.79
Cost of Deposits (%)2.06% 1.93% 1.76%
Borrowed Funds (period-end, $B)$5.44 $4.78 $4.44

Noninterest Income Mix

Category ($M)Q1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Commercial Account Fees44 47 45
Card Fees23 24 23
Retail & Business Banking Fees16 17 17
Loan-related Fees & Income15 20 17
Capital Markets Fees & Income25 40 27
Wealth Management Fees15 14 15
Other Customer-related Fees14 14 14
Customer-related Noninterest Income152 176 158
Dividends & Other Income6 9 7
Securities Gains (Losses), net(2) 8 6
Total Noninterest Income156 193 171

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Net Interest Income1Q26 vs 1Q25Not quantified prior quarter (Q4 commentary noted optimism for NIM improvement) Slightly to moderately increasing; modeled +4.6% in implied path; +2.1% to +6.6% under ±100 bps shocks Introduced upward bias
Customer-related Noninterest Income1Q26 vs 1Q25Not quantifiedSlightly to moderately increasing; broader fee growth with lower capital markets growth vs prior view Introduced upward bias
Adjusted Noninterest Expense1Q26 vs 1Q25Not quantifiedSlightly to moderately increasing (tech, marketing, revenue investments); expect positive operating leverage Introduced upward bias with leverage
Loans (period-end)1Q26 vs 1Q25Not quantifiedStable to slightly increasing; slower near term given tariff uncertainty; CRE/mortgage managed down Introduced cautious
Common Equity1Q26 vs 1Q25Not quantifiedIncreasing organically (retained earnings, AOCI accretion) Introduced upward
Operating LeverageRolling next 12 monthsNot specified numericallyPositive operating leverage affirmed at ~1–2% (Q&A) Explicitly affirmed
DividendOngoing$0.43/sh in Q4 2024 $0.43/sh declared for May 22, 2025 Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024, Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
NIM / Deposit CostsNIM strengthening; deposit stabilization noted in Q3 ; optimism for further NIM improvement in Q4 NIM +5 bps q/q to 3.10%; deposit cost -17 bps; total spot deposit rate 1.70% Improving
Capital Markets / FeesQ4 noted record capital markets; fees strong Fees normalized q/q (down 10%) but +4% y/y; 1Q26 fee outlook slightly/modestly higher Normalizing from high base
Credit / CREQ3 & Q4: rising classifieds, low realized losses NCOs 11 bps; NPAs 0.51%; CRE nonaccruals low; classifieds elevated but mitigated by LTVs/guarantors Stable losses; watch lists elevated
Macro / TariffsGeneral macro caution prior Heightened uncertainty explicitly tied to tariffs/trade; caution on loan demand/pipelines Caution increased
Technology / AICore/digital upgrades mentioned historically Selected nCino to transform commercial/small business origination; “AI-enabled culture” emphasis Execution progressing
Capital / BuybacksTBV growth; sub debt issuance in Nov-24 CET1 10.8%; $41M buybacks; preference to build ex-AOCI CET1 toward peer median Balanced build + returns

Management Commentary

  • “First quarter net income and earnings per share increased 18% from last year’s period… [and] reflect a 16 basis point increase in the net interest margin and a 10% increase in adjusted pre-provision net revenue.” — Harris H. Simmons, CEO .
  • On tax impact: “$0.11 per share charge to income tax expense… from a beneficial Utah tax law change… expected to accrete back into income… [and] reduce the tax on securities income in future periods.” — Simmons .
  • On macro/tariffs: “The outlook for the economy is perhaps more uncertain… with potential negative impacts from tariffs and trade policy” — Simmons ; “I just don’t feel that anybody can credibly say that they understand what the impact is going to be” — Simmons (Q&A) .
  • On NII sensitivity: implied NII +4.6% by 1Q26 vs 1Q25 under forward curve; ±100 bps shocks imply +2.1% to +6.6% .
  • On expenses and leverage: expense opportunities across the bank to dampen growth; positive operating leverage targeted despite uncertainty .
  • On technology: selecting nCino to enhance end-to-end lending process and response speed .

Q&A Highlights

  • Loan growth outlook: Expect moderate growth to continue; some slowing in near term as clients await tariff clarity; CRE to be managed down via payoffs/refis; 1–4 family growth includes construction fund-ups and acquired loans .
  • NII guidance and rate sensitivity: A meaningful portion “baked in” to the curve; modeled +4.6% by 1Q26 vs 1Q25; deposit cost latency provides room even without Fed cuts .
  • Deposit pricing/funding: Total deposit spot rate at 1.70% (IB 2.54%); brokered CDs and short-term borrowings expected to be managed down with deposit growth and securities paydowns .
  • Credit/classifieds: Elevated classifieds driven by CRE (industrial/office) and C&I, but nonaccruals remain low; focus on C&I exposure to tariff-sensitive sectors (trucking/transport < $500M) .
  • Capital/returns: $40M FY25 repurchase authorization discussed; bias to build ex-AOCI CET1 toward peer levels before materially upsizing buybacks .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 EPS of $1.13 modestly missed S&P Global consensus of ~$1.18, with an $0.11/share tax DTA revaluation charge the key headwind; revenue was below S&P consensus ($0.777B vs ~$0.795B), though company-reported GAAP revenue (NII + noninterest) was $0.795B . EPS and revenue consensus values marked with an asterisk were retrieved from S&P Global.*
  • Potential estimate revisions:
    • Modest downward EPS adjustments near term to reflect the Utah tax law timing effect; management expects accretion back over security lives .
    • NII trajectories likely to hold or drift up on deposit cost tailwinds and asset remix; fee estimates may normalize post-Q4 record capital markets .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Core banking spread dynamics are improving: NIM expansion with falling deposit costs provides a clearer path to NII growth even amid uncertain rate cuts .
  • Credit remains a support: low realized losses and low CRE nonaccruals offset concerns about elevated classifieds; watch C&I pockets tied to tariffs and transportation .
  • Operating discipline continues, but expense seasonality and regulatory assessments can swing the efficiency ratio; management is pursuing multiple cost levers while investing in growth tech .
  • Guidance points to positive operating leverage and slightly/modestly higher NII and fees over the next year, with loans stable to modestly higher; deposit behavior and tariff policy are the swing factors .
  • Capital and distributions are balanced: CET1 10.8%, buybacks ongoing but sized prudently; dividend held at $0.43 .
  • Near-term trading setup: watch for incremental datapoints on deposit pricing (further cost relief), capital markets fee run-rate, and any tariff headlines affecting loan demand/credit sentiment; NIM resilience is a potential catalyst, while macro/trade shocks are the key risk .

Additional supporting data and disclosures:

  • Company reported: Net earnings to common $169M; EPS $1.13; NII $624M; noninterest income $171M; Adjusted PPNR $267M; efficiency ratio 66.6%; CET1 10.8%; NCOs 0.11%; NPAs 0.51% .
  • Dividend: $0.43 per share declared May 2, 2025 .
  • Strategic: Coachella Valley branch acquisition (~$630M deposits; ~$420M loans) and nCino platform selection .

S&P Global estimates disclaimer: Values marked with an asterisk were retrieved from S&P Global.